Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)

[Rotherby]

I have not been convinced that Newmont will divest itself of Telfer, but I am becoming convinced that this is more likely to happen than it continue as-is i.e. a Joint venture into a miner.

My reasoning has change with the new Newmont prestation linked below.

From this and the other things issued as part of the Merger/Takeover I was convinced that the minor (from their point of view) JV's would/will be released.

This presentation only features Telfer as a Newcrest operation, and does not give it with Telfer and Havieron Tier 1 status, reading through I does look like Newmont do not want Havieron or Telfer.

Pages 10 to shows 11 Tier 1 Mines.
Newmont Tier 1 are
AHAFO SOUTH
BODDINGTON
TANAMI
PEÑASQUITO

Newcrest Tier 1 are
LIHIR
CADIA
Tier 1 District Golden Triangle

Newcrest Joint Ventures Tier 1 are
CARLIN*, CORTEZ*,TURQUOISE RIDGE*
PUEBLO VIEJO*

Page 11 shows 14 as Tier 1 Asset potential, some of these duplicate with others but Telfer and Havieron do not feature.

Telfer without Havieron does not seem to be a saleable Asset, so I now conclude that it is up for sale, the the antics of the last week help to reinforce this view, if we are to progress and 'buy' the liability of Telfer with the 70% of Havieron.

https://s24.q4cdn.com/382246808/files/d ... inal-1.pdf

[Redirons]

Interesting view Rotherby - thank you.
Are you prepared to venture further as to what would happen to our SP whilst we (presumably) get embroiled in agreeing a figure for the 70% of Havieron plus Telfer? Also what kind of delay could be incurred until reaching first ore, as presumably as soon as Newmont say it’s up for sale, Newcrest just down tools and back away?
I’d be interested in a number of views on this - good or bad.
Thanks,
Red.

[Rotherby]

I had not gone that far, but my thoughts for what they are worth.

I think it will be a sale as a going concern, so work will continue, they have a JV that requires to continue, and a decision to Mine or Not, unless they want to pull out of the JV and we then get the 70% back for free, I cannot see that as a possibility, also they have a large work force and contracts that will not disappear.

Shaun has experience of these type of deals and I would suspect that most of the deals are 'done deals' before anyone knows what is happening, the logical buyer for the Telfer/Havieron Project is Greatland due to the constraints of the JV, selling to a third party could be a problem as the JV will get in the way of agreeing on that unless the buyer is a Greatland major shareholder with deep pockets.

Newmont know what they are doing have done it before, (and sold to Shaun) they know their figures, it could be that discussions have happened or are ongoing. If the sale is to go ahead then I would not be surprised at a sale agreed in principle before we list on the ASX, subject to the merger going ahead, this will allow us to put the funding in place by debt and a raise via the ASX.

The share price is anyone guess, but with a route to profit it must be assumed that the price will at least hold in the 7 to 10p and slowly move up as we get to/near to production when I would hope we would see 15 to 20p still short on the price of Shaun's options @25p by 4 May 2026. Lets hope Shaun can exercise him options at a profit so 25 plus maybe 30p in April 2026 or better, I think most LTH would be happy if this comes to pass.

I would like to hear other views as well, I have in the above put my view as of today, Monday may bring news that changes my view.

[Bamps21]

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintellig ... l-75768724

[Bamps21]

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintellig ... in-history

[Bamps21]

Hi Rotherby
Hope my 2 links help with your thread.

[Rotherby]

Thanks Bamps for the posts I had seen some but not all.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintellig ... in-history

I had missed this interesting article, so I had not seen the AISC graph of the different assets which shows Telfer as the most expensive mine in both companies, meaning that gold produced at Telfer only just covers costs.

The Bubble diagram puts Telfer at a different position to the pie chart, but both make Telfer look insignificant compared to the other assets.

From my perspective (and I welcome other opinions), the Havieron project for Newmont could be borderline. Getting rid of the liability for Telfer might be a favorable move, perhaps with certain conditions.

This confirms my change of thinking, but I am still not 100% convinced.

If it is offered can Greatland handle the joint sites (Havieron and Telfer) on our own?

Once we own the whole (if we ever do) then we have a large workforce and major on going costs, very high risk elements to us going ahead, while we all hope things go smoothly this cannot be assumed.

On the plus side we will have a well organised established workforce that are doing more of the same as they did for Newcrest, we assume that most will move over to Greatland, but we need both the mine management and operatives.
We have a developed mine plan that as far as we know has gone through the delays and tests to get to the ore body, it has been through several iterations, so most possibilities will have been considered.

We should not kid ourselves that this will be easy, I think Shaun and the BOD he has assembled do have the "way of it all" to carry this off. While we have now considerable expertise, on the BOD and with the Telfer manpower, and experience, this mine as still a BIG project.

There is not only the cost of purchase which may surprise us at the low price (I hope) Newmont will let it go for, but it does include the liability for Telfer and that brings in the speed/timing of the work needed to Telfer once there is no more ore on the site.

There is a lot of finance needed to run all of this for the few years, and still risks with the mine.

An alternatives is that Telfer and the 70% are sold to our investors in a friendly sale, and they become our JV partners, this will then leave the JV "as is", and reduce our risks, of providing the finance, and this does not involve dilution.

The alternative appears to be a capital raise with dilution and more bank borrowing, but it should be a much bigger cake, likely putting back the date when we have the funds to pay dividends, not saying the we will not recover the share price in that time.

All of this is based on the possibility of buying Telfer and the 70% with only Havieron supplying ore, if we do not have a partner we have a situation be able to process ore from other discoveries in the area not only our own.

Interesting times, at that point my crystal ball ran of of power, these are my thoughts not predictions, I would like other predictions/discussions on the situation we find ourselves.

[jecsggp]

Firstly, I can't see a gold source as large and economical as Havieron not getting mined. Secondly, Newmont will only want to keep profitable sites. As Telfer is almost worked out as a gold mine, it only has value if there is a close source of ore. Havieron would fit that requirement as would any other 'local' find by small (or even large) prospecting companies. Telfer also has decomissioning costs to the owner if a source of ore is not forthcoming so I can see it being an expensive white elephant without Havieron being mined.

Some infrastructure (crushers) may be movable to Havieron (or even down into the block caves to allow conveyer extraction - so some potential savings on ore transport?, but any gold still needs to be processed somewhere and Havieron is a long way to 'somewhere' without Telfer..

J

[ZorbatheGeek]

Hi Rotherby, I agree with you.
I think these discussions about the sale of 70% HAV & Telfer have been going on a lot longer than us PIs realise.
Shaun's has always said that he believes GGP has a better springboard with HAV than the beginnings of Northern Star and we have all assumed he meant the 30% of HAV.
However, I'm now wondering if the 100% HAV plus Telfer has always been in Shaun's mind from the beginning - he has openly admitted that he was talking to Newmont from his very early days with GGP.
He also said that he was courting Mark Barnaba for 12 months before finally convincing him to join, not sure how long he was talking to Jimmy and Elizabeth Gains, but I wouldn't have thought 30% of HAV alone wouldn't have convince any of them to jump ship.
By taking HAV and Telfer, that would set up GGP (& partners) to be the processing centre for the entire area and using GGP exploration expertise to bring in others as joint ventures or further buy outs.
If we go back to Liam's interview with Callum, he dropped in that WINU could be part of the target - something that AFAICT hadn't been mentioned prior to that. Now that vision could have peaked the new board and Wyloos interest.
Looking at Shaun's past performance when completing the raise for the HAV production costs, he got the banks to commit to the debt portion on the basis of the required equity raise. There's nothing to say that he could repeat this and have the banks letters of commit signed off based on the next equity raise, which would explain last week and the possible consideration of a raise as part of the ASX listing.
Regarding timings, with the ASX scheduled for Sept quarter, (latest Sept), then everything may be in place for an official move following the NCM shareholder approval in September possible.
Just my thoughts and musing on the subject

[poniexpress]

Taking my relaxed view of my GGP investment I could not really disagree with any of the views expressed in this thread and the subsequent Win-Win situations and Zorbathegeek's post does particularly resonate with me.
The only niggle in the back of my mind is the question relating to our SP "Is our resolve (Pi's) being tested" and if so Why? and By Whom?
I feel SD and the board will have considered all eventualities and will have them covered but I would never totally discount the unexpected. My hope is that we will remain in a win-win situation whatever the end game.
Just my thoughts.

[Rotherby]

Zorba
Thanks I had not been thinking about anything other than the change of ownership of the joint venture and its effect on GGP, not the greater (possible ) picture.

Your are correct re the new board members, (who I have always said are not here for peanuts, they know GGP will reward them well with Share price gain not 10/20p they want a real gain) and Shaun has always said he wants to build a very sustancial company.

GGP is an investment failure for me, every chance I get to buy I chat to my son about it not going lower, I buy and at this point I must apologise, it drops, I do not expect to gain from GGP as my signature indicates, although I would like to get to a breakeven position.

The bigger picture you paint, aligns and crystallises my thoughts, the rest of this year will be very interesting and I hope I can get to the next TH meeting, I like the way Shaun is very open at these meetings, I suspect that the RNS that SD referred to will be the ASX listing proposals.

PonieExpress
I am surprised that you have a relaxed view, I thought the pony Express was all go!!!!

I think the share price will look after itself, and a lot of people have made (and lost) money from their investments or trading in GGP. I think this is happening ever day and if it is because of shorters, then I think this may be something that will be with us long term. If they can make money at these prices think what they can make in a market at 10 or 100 times the price if they have the funds to implement their strategy.

[JET47]

Hello all GGPers. I hope you are all well.

I’ve read a lot of negative comments about shorts but I think of shorts in a more positive way. I hold shorts to be a vehicle for mega wealthy individuals or corporate investors who wish to a) remain invisible and b) wait for certain future events to come to fruition before buying a share in which they are EXTREMELY interested. Translation for ‘extremely interested’? ‘Will make loads of profit.’ The sheer volume of shorts means that Greatland is a PRIZE to these individuals/corporations who, remember, don’t act alone. They have teams of financial advisors telling them what to invest in, with one goal, ‘make ‘loadsa’ money’.

The indisputable fact is that the gold, copper, etc are a ‘Region’ - not the size of a back garden, not a gold field - but a ‘Region’ and ever-expanding. It’s proven that the gold, etc are there. It’s a safe territory, and a very experienced man with a track record of making money is at the helm, and currently has a large crew digging very fast to get at it.

For me, Greatland is a long term hold. Yes, I think more games will be played with the SP. But as long as I’m aware of it, and I keep a daily eye on the SP, I’m as good as the opposition.

All the best, peeps,
JET47
STRONG HOLD
DYOR

[poniexpress]

Rotherby,
I just think the only way forward is up and away given all the aspects of what we have as illustrated on this board and fruition is getting ever closer.
Poniexpress was the rush to the discovery but now its "CONTENT" and hopefully more in the future.

[Rotherby]

I think todays RNS's are very positive and in relation to this tread actually enhances the chance of an agreement with Newmont on Telfer/Havieron.

[jecsggp]

I completely agree the odds have shortened. All going swimmingly well! I envisage a big company developing and a lot of things happening 'in parallel'.

A few thoughts IF they were to get Telfer....

,,,, this new situation could make the need (at greater cost than their existing loan arrangement) to acquire Newmont's 70% of Havieron less important. They could just charge to process that 70% of all the ore. If these new tenements become minable (and it would all depends on the cost/oz. Ag) they would be able to cherry-pick their 30% of the richer, top bits of Havieron and leave the rest in storage.

Alternatively Newmont may want to keep Telfer for all their new, prospetive mines in the area!

J.

I think todays RNS's are very positive and in relation to this tread actually enhances the chance of an agreement with Newmont on Telfer/Havieron.

[Rotherby]

Having given it a while to sink in what is happening Rio, Juri etc

Shaun and Co seem to be working hard, a lot does seem to be going in the back ground.

Following on from my previos thoughts could it be that Telfer is a done deal, if not in practice then considered highly likely by the Mining trade in Oz.

Hence Rio very happy to pass a lot of the Patterson over to Greatland to explore, as either with or without Newcrest/Newmont we have access to Telfer if we make a discovery.

The change in Juri management will do exactly what the RNS says
"The shift of Juri Joint Venture management to Newcrest provides Greatland's exploration team the opportunity to put greater focus on our 100%-owned portfolio of highly prospective tenure together with our responsibilities as the new manager of the farm-in and joint venture arrangement with Rio Tinto Exploration on the Paterson South Project."

Could this all have come about by negotiation (Shaun and Co) as we are a small company and in RIO Patterson South we do seem to have taken on enough, if not more, so it makes sense to let Newcrest do the work on Juri they can more easily redeploy staff than Greatland.

I look forward to the next RNS.

[Bamps21]

Hi Jecs
Cherry pick the top 30%.
That’s not going to happen, the government will not allow this. A mining plan for this would not get approval.

[jecsggp]

Hi Bamps

I agree a mining plan for 30% of the orebody is unlikey to get approval especially as the full extent of the ore body and richness content is not yet fully assessed. I'm was not suggesting a mining application was just the top rich stuff but, like Telfer was mined, it will take decades to take the rest of the lower quality stuff out. Surely other extraction methods will need to be set up to extract those and it would need to be in the full mining plan? My 30% figure was their part of the top rich stuff, not 30% of the mine and my 'storage' comment was meant to mean 'delay', not 'totally neglect'.

I was mulling the options if they didn't get the 70% from Newcrest (or Newmont) but did get the Telfer plant. Especially if it turned out to be Newmont I thought the 'owner' of a retained 70% might pay just to have their ore processed at a Greatland-owned Telfer processing plant. I believe SD has great plans a multi-faceted company and there is certainly a plethora of scenarios for Greatland in the Paterson (for now!).

I am no expert on this so your views and insight are always much appreciated. keep them coming.
Cheers
John

Hi Jecs
Cherry pick the top 30%.
That’s not going to happen, the government will not allow this. A mining plan for this would not get approval.

[RationalAssessor]

jecsggp.

As the ore is taken out of Havieron, it will not be split down into GGP ore and NCM/NEM ore.....it will be JV owned ore.
It will then be transported to Telfer and processed there with the costs being borne by the JV in proportions as per the JV ie 30/70.
Any income generated will also be split as per the JV ie 30/70.

Additionally, I believe that the mining plan will accommodate the mining of the ore which is covered in the FS but this will not include all of Havieron, just the initial project. As they progress the mine, they will prepare more PFSs and FSs and mining plans which will augment the foundation mining plan. Lots of projects over the coming years as the orebody is better understood.

ATB RA

[jecsggp]

Totally agree with all your points and the costs/profit will be 70/30 whichever way you look at it. My points aren't contradictory to that, but they are only my thoughts on the matter.

Cheers
John

jecsggp.

As the ore is taken out of Havieron, it will not be split down into GGP ore and NCM/NEM ore.....it will be JV owned ore.
It will then be transported to Telfer and processed there with the costs being borne by the JV in proportions as per the JV ie 30/70.
Any income generated will also be split as per the JV ie 30/70.

Additionally, I believe that the mining plan will accommodate the mining of the ore which is covered in the FS but this will not include all of Havieron, just the initial project. As they progress the mine, they will prepare more PFSs and FSs and mining plans which will augment the foundation mining plan. Lots of projects over the coming years as the orebody is better understood.

ATB RA