100m to buy back .. BUT why?

[Hydrogen]

On the face of it, it looks as if someone is acting to defend a profitable, but now deteriorating, short position.. Ok.

But something doesn't make any sense... Why keep gradually adding - and so much - over such an extended period of time?

Especially, when meanwhile the fundamentals (MRE , growth drilling results, depth to orebody, scally + EJ drilling get closer) and price is now apparently moving the opposite direction?

IMO it looks as if their efforts are having "pretty much net zero effect now". But what I don’t get is the ‘progressive nature’ of this short position. The way it’s continually growing over approaching 12 months now suggests to me, it’s not about anything specific or any ‘event’ in particular…. Its looking more like an over extended ( now failing ) attempt at price suppression.

Otherwise, it’s just illogical risk management.

If you believed ggp was worth shorting 95m at 11p then you would surely have believed the same at 14/15p 6-7 months ago - for much much better returns…? But no... That's just not how they played it. Why?

Well arguably, and evidently, it’s potentially not about returns. Because presumably, You would have closed at 9-10p for a 60% profit from JPMs 18m sell back in January. And maybe they can’t/ won’t close - as that would be pretty difficult now? Given how illiquid GGP is... remember a 10m buy moves us up about 1- 1.5p

Nitram has cleverly illustrated how and why "they" are an estimated 30% of total GGP volume over the past year or so. Ortex suggest it would take 7 days of trading to close, potentially rocketing the SP into orbit 10-20% (IMO) every day...

So we come to the Why? Why target little ol GGP like this...when so few other gold developers (other than Solgold) have big shorts in play... Hmmm? No coincidence both are >>>> significant takeover targets ???

I've concluded it all Feels like this is either about 1) defending a misjudged position… Or 2) it’s about… possible accumulation and/or price suppression, for some future event.

Someone has to buy back at least 95m. (Probably 100m by now - as the ortex data lags)... That’s between £12-15m worth of stock depending on the average price achieved … it's surpasses Blackrock's 'big 90m buy' that took us from 28p to 34p. Undeniably its now getting into Vaneck size buy territory …

But all the while, with the exception of whoever is represented by JPM asset management, 'they' remain hidden, under all reporting thresholds.

But why?

Think about it ... If you were that sure, that convinced, of your short... you’d be out in the open; like Marshall Wace… or shouting your mouth off like Muddy Waters - not hiding under the radar..

And this has now become one helluva cul-de-sac creek. They just keep selling, suppressing. As Jupiter et al hoovers up.

And then there is this (attached) : it's a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern with the GGP Chart over laid... The pattern coincidence was first flagged to me over 2 months ago...back in mid May. The Spring was the dip to 9p.... The 'test' took place in June.

And, updated 3 months on in mid August , the confluence and the coincidence is still pretty striking.

I reckon we might presently be at the "LPS" zone marked by the purple circle.

Just a theory...

[Hydrogen]

Sorry Files didn't attach....

[Hydrogen]

Final image. Where we're at now... the LPS zone ..?
It's pretty striking right?

[Hydrogen]

Solgold chart on Ortex....FYI.
Red is stock on loan

[iseo395]

Great work H - hope you’re in the right ballpark!

[Acechaser]

You put a compelling case H. It looks like somebody is paying the piper and somebody is in somebody's pocket. How long can this go on for; I am sure that question has been asked numerous times in the last 6 months. I am in the HAV buyout camp and not a takeover. But it is shenanigans such as this short and NCM 5% negotiation process that are starting to sway me. Methinks all will be revealed shortly.

[ManFromUruguay]

Great post H. One question...what are your views from several holders on telegram that 95+ million on loan does not necessarily mean they are all active. Could be much less and the shares on loan a smokescreen to keep the fear factor in play and keep buying pressure down ?
Cheers MFU

[Acechaser]

MFU - And some argue that 95M is not a lot in the scheme of things (but seems to be enough to make the market move); I think that adds to your point that a lot of this is "fear factor" in what one could say is a very sensitive market right now. Not so sticky hands.

[leslieby101]

Superb analysis and coupled with those images, almost frightening!

The overlays are simply to accurate to ignore. I for one, have been avidly following these highly informative threads. Thanks for the input all.

[Costa]

Percentage wise, little old me has out performed the GGP short position versus my short positions by some margin. Hydro, many including you and I have discussed this more than a few times. Lots of theories but given what i have just stated surely it cannot be about profit as there are many, in fact loads of better short plays out there on a daily, weekly and if you want hourly basis. Can mean suppression/accumulation is more than a possibility. Or, a loss leader in a TO attempt, although that is unlikely imo.

[speedymeadie]

Hi Costa. Why do you think a TO is unlikely? We are a prime target, low SP, huge potential. ATB Speedy

[Costa]

Hey Speedie.

Sorry if my post is confusing. I do not mean that we are/could/would not be a TO target...

I mean i do not think that the short is related to a TO. At least, i do see enough evidence at this point.

[speedymeadie]

Hi Costa. Thanks for the reply. Did you mean to say "i do NOT see enough evidence"ATB Speedy

[Costa]

Yes. At this time.

[‘96dc2]

Do the shorts just carry on now? Don’t think we will see any rise in share price the rest of this year. Must start accumulating again.

[barna]

I think once GGP have the finance in place the shorts will close there are only 2 reasons for me why they may increase
1 )dilution GGP and SD do not want this
2) NCM decide not to mine
The thing that irritates me is the shorts have inside information and will close them a week before any announcement is made and they get away with what is basically insider dealing you will never stop information getting leaked far to much money involved

[Paradise]

IMHO NC would not spend the money and time both at HV and telfer, not to mine here. Defies logic not to proceed ASAP.
What I dont understand is the SP, with MRE confirmed to Nov last year, we know own 30% and awaiting MRE of the last 9 months.

Newcrest 5% decision is a bit baffling, but they are not stupid, mining is thier business.
If I was them I would be purchasing the whole of GGP because the licences it holds in the patterson.

nothing makes sense at the moment, considering the legacy issues are behind us.

[Chumley4]

Hello, first time ive contributed so apologies if I've trampled over etiquette.

On this thread I have a couple questions.

1. Would it not possible for shaun and Co find out the beneficial owner of the short using section 793 disclosure act? https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters. ... blic,years)%20interested%20in%20its%20shares.

2. Also I read the below. Would it possible
To talk up ggp here to shake out the short by influencing the price up? Reading on the site I think there is defo enough info

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/03/the-300 ... -play.html

[JerryS]

Morning Chumley. I have suggested this to Shaun in a previous email. Not sure he knew what he could do and equally not sure that he wanted to either. But he should get one of the brokers to issue the notice imo.
I think that most people think that the lending is coming from gdxj, which makes you wonder whether they have their investors best interests at heart. I sold my gdxj when I learnt of this.

[Masham Ale]

Looks like they've bought over half of them back today with their get out of jail free card.